UK exports to the Middle East have seen a significant decline of 20% since the Iran war began eight weeks ago, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. The number of certificates of origin issued for exports to the region fell from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026. This downturn is indicative of goods being delayed, rerouted, or not shipped at all. Steven Lynch, director of international trade at the British Chambers of Commerce, noted that UK firms are facing less reliable trade routes and increased costs due to geopolitical risks. The conflict has resulted in a targeted impact on exports tied to Arab markets, with SMEs particularly feeling the strain on cash flow and confidence. Furthermore, a recent report indicated that the number of UK businesses in critical financial distress surged by 36.9%, reflecting the broader economic challenges posed by the conflict. As UK companies grapple with these issues, they are increasingly pessimistic about future activity, anticipating further declines in business volumes across various sectors.