Bitcoin (BTC) reached highs above $76,000 on Wednesday, but analysts from Glassnode warn that declaring the start of a new bull market is premature. They highlight weak new capital inflows, with Bitcoin's growth rate remaining negative for all 105 trading days in 2026. The average active holder is currently experiencing a loss of about 5%, following a peak drawdown of 20%. Analysts emphasize that reclaiming the true market mean (TMM) of $78,013 is essential for investors to return to profitability. Historical comparisons indicate that similar situations in the past have lasted from two days to over 11 months, with significant drawdowns observed during previous cycles, including a 57% decline in the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 periods. As the market currently shows a steady outflow of capital, analysts recommend closely monitoring the situation for signs of a bullish reversal.