Goldman Sachs Predicts API Capacity Will Shape Semaglutide Generic Market
Semaglutide generics' future depends on API capacity: Goldman Sachs
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Goldman Sachs forecasts that the future of semaglutide generics and GLP-1 pricing after 2031 will hinge on peptide API manufacturing capacity, particularly from China. The firm anticipates a significant demand for peptide API, estimating US GLP-1 sales at $66 billion by 2030.
- 01Goldman Sachs estimates that US GLP-1 sales will reach $66 billion by 2030, with a need for 35,000 kg of peptide API.
- 02China is expected to be the primary source of peptide APIs for semaglutide generics, especially as the patent expires in 2027.
- 03The manufacturing methods for semaglutide generics will likely favor synthetic SPPS due to lower initial costs, despite its scaling challenges.
- 04Projected sales outside the US and China are expected to hit $43 billion by 2030, requiring 32,000 kg of API.
- 05Brand loyalty and price elasticity in the obesity market introduce uncertainties in the speed of semaglutide's genericisation.
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Goldman Sachs has indicated that the pace of semaglutide genericisation and GLP-1 pricing after 2031 will largely depend on the manufacturing capacity of peptide active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), rather than on market demand. China is positioned as the leading supplier of synthetic APIs and will likely play a crucial role in the launch of semaglutide generics ahead of the patent expiration in 2027. The firm projects that US GLP-1 sales could reach $66 billion by 2030, necessitating approximately 35,000 kg of peptide API. Additionally, sales outside the US and China are expected to amount to $43 billion by 2030, requiring around 32,000 kg of API. The report notes that most generic manufacturers may opt for synthetic SPPS manufacturing due to lower capital expenditure, despite its complexity in scaling. However, uncertainties remain regarding brand loyalty and price elasticity in the obesity treatment market, which could affect the overall speed of genericisation.
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The dynamics of semaglutide genericisation will influence healthcare costs and accessibility for obesity treatments.
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