India has announced an immediate ban on sugar exports until September 30, 2026, due to domestic supply challenges and inflation concerns. The order, issued by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, prohibits the export of raw, white, and refined sugar. This marks a significant policy reversal from earlier expectations of surplus production, where limited exports were permitted. Current projections estimate India's sugar production at 32 million tonnes for the season ending September 30, down from an earlier estimate of 32.4 million tonnes. Domestic demand is expected to reach 28 million tonnes, resulting in closing stocks of just 4.5 million tonnes, the lowest since the 2016-17 season. The government is particularly concerned about the upcoming 2026-27 season, with potential production declines due to weaker rains linked to El Niño and fertilizer shortages. Notably, the ban does not apply to exports to the European Union and the United States under existing tariff-rate quotas. Following the announcement, global sugar futures surged, with raw sugar prices rising over 2% in New York and white sugar prices increasing by around 3% in London.