Political Divisions Influence Bitcoin, Gold, and Stock Market Performance
Under Which Party Do Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks Perform Best? The Answer May Surprise You
Benzinga
Image: Benzinga
Analyst Benjamin Cowen reveals that financial markets, including Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, tend to perform better under divided government in the U.S. than under full political control. Historical data shows Bitcoin's best returns occur during political gridlock, while full party control correlates with weaker performance.
- 01Markets historically yield stronger returns during divided government.
- 02Bitcoin performs poorly under full political party control, especially Democratic leadership.
- 03Republican sweeps have historically led to a 410% average increase in Bitcoin.
- 04Long-term trends suggest that market structure matters more than short-term political narratives.
- 05Future political divisions could be beneficial for Bitcoin's performance.
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Analyst Benjamin Cowen's recent analysis indicates that financial markets, including Bitcoin (BTC), gold, and the S&P 500, tend to thrive under divided government rather than full political control. Cowen's examination reveals that Bitcoin's median performance is notably better during periods of political gridlock. For instance, while the Republican sweep resulted in an average gain of 410% for Bitcoin, Democratic control led to an average decline of -2%, largely due to a slump under President Biden's administration. Despite Bitcoin's current downturn of approximately 7% this year, historical midterm averages suggest a potential recovery. Cowen also noted that the S&P 500 has consistently trended upward through various political changes, indicating that market dynamics may be less influenced by short-term political narratives and more by long-term liquidity and market structure. Looking ahead, Cowen suggests that a split Congress in 2027 could be bullish for Bitcoin, although the dataset remains limited due to Bitcoin's relatively short existence.
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