India's fertiliser subsidy is expected to surpass budget estimates by ₹70,000 crore, totaling around ₹2.40 lakh crore for the current fiscal year. This increase is primarily driven by a surge in global prices for di ammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea, following supply disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in West Asia. The Indian government, which relies on imports for over 80% of its DAP requirements, has seen prices for urea rise by 85% to $950 per tonne and DAP by 30% to $900 per tonne since March 2026. To ensure that farmers have access to affordable fertilisers, the government is ramping up imports ahead of the kharif sowing season. The high subsidy outgo is attributed to increased procurement volumes and rising freight costs. In the past, similar price spikes have led to substantial increases in subsidy expenditures, as seen during the Ukraine crisis in FY23, when the subsidy reached ₹2.54 lakh crore.