India's agricultural sector is bracing for a challenging year as ICRA reports a trifecta of threats: below-normal monsoon rainfall, potential El Nino conditions, and fertilizer supply risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in West Asia. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects that the 2026 Southwest Monsoon will deliver rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the lowest initial forecast in 25 years. This decline from previous years, where rainfall was above normal, raises concerns for kharif crop sowing, which is crucial between June and September. Additionally, a 62% chance of El Nino developing could exacerbate the situation by further reducing rainfall. The West Asia conflict threatens to disrupt fertilizer supply chains, complicating domestic production efforts. ICRA has adjusted its FY2027 agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) growth forecast to 3.0% and predicts consumer price inflation to surpass 4.5%, driven by anticipated increases in food prices. However, current reservoir levels are at 47% of live capacity, higher than last year’s 40%, which may provide some buffer against adverse conditions. The report emphasizes the importance of well-distributed rainfall and reasonable increases in minimum support prices to sustain farm sentiment amidst these challenges.