The global oil market is experiencing a significant supply shock, primarily driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the expiration of US Treasury sanctions on Russian crude. Brent crude, which ended February at $77 per barrel, surged to an intraday high of $138 in April and currently hovers around $106. Analysts predict prices will stabilize between $95 and $115 per barrel, with risks of further increases if disruptions persist. The expiration of sanctions has particularly impacted Indian refiners, who heavily rely on Russian oil, accounting for approximately 33% of India's crude imports. The Indian economy faces vulnerabilities, with each $10 increase in oil prices potentially worsening the current account deficit (CAD) by $15 billion and raising inflation. Global crude inventories have dropped from 8.6 billion barrels to 8.1 billion barrels, indicating a supply deficit of 500-600 million barrels. Demand in Asia is weakening, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) downgrading global demand growth projections significantly. The outlook remains tight, suggesting that oil-importing nations like India will face continued economic challenges due to elevated oil prices.