Bitcoin's current bear market has seen realized losses of about $174 billion, significantly lower than the $211 billion recorded in 2022. According to onchain analytics from CryptoQuant, this discrepancy suggests that the market has not yet reached its bottom. Historical trends indicate that a new wave of capitulation is necessary for a true market recovery, as investor behavior has not aligned with previous bear markets. Retail investor conviction remains notably high, with many attempting to capitalize on price dips, while institutional investors have been selling into these relief bounces. Experts warn that this dynamic, where less capital-rich retail investors absorb supply from larger institutional players, is not typical for forming market bottoms. The analysis suggests that if the bear market continues for a few more months, it could potentially surpass current losses, but for now, the market has yet to experience the capitulation needed to signal a recovery.