Traders Predict Continued Decline in Bitcoin Prices Amid Institutional Outflows
Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run
Coindesk
Image: Coindesk
Prediction market traders are betting on further declines in Bitcoin prices, with a 66% chance of falling below $55,000 and a 50% chance of dipping below $50,000 by year-end. Heavy outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and a shift towards AI stocks are contributing to this bearish sentiment.
- 01Traders assign a 66% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 this year and a 50% chance of dropping under $50,000.
- 02Significant outflows from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs totaled $2.4 billion in May and $1 billion in early June.
- 03Investors are increasingly favoring AI-related stocks over Bitcoin, viewing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin as too high.
- 04Prediction markets indicate only a 30% chance that Bitcoin will outperform gold by 2026.
- 05Despite bearish sentiment on Bitcoin, capital is shifting into stablecoins like USDT and USDC instead of leaving the crypto market entirely.
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Prediction market traders are increasingly bearish on Bitcoin's near-term performance, assigning a 66% probability that it will fall below $55,000 this year and a 50% chance of dipping under $50,000. The cryptocurrency has recently slumped towards $65,000, pressured by significant outflows from U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a growing preference for high-performing AI stocks. Notably, $2.4 billion was withdrawn from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs in May alone, with an additional $1 billion pulled in the first two days of June. K33 Research highlights that many investors are viewing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin as too high compared to the gains seen in AI-linked equities. While Bitcoin struggles, capital appears to be moving into stablecoins such as USDT and USDC, indicating that traders are raising cash rather than exiting the crypto market altogether. This trend suggests that while traders are betting on lower Bitcoin prices, they remain poised for potential future opportunities.
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