The ongoing tensions in West Asia, particularly the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, are anticipated to have severe repercussions on global food prices, especially in India. Retail food inflation in India rose to 3.87% in March 2026, with prices for tomatoes and cauliflower increasing by 34-36% year-on-year. Maximo Torero, Chief Economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), highlighted that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 90-95% since Iran closed this crucial shipping route in late February. This blockade poses a significant threat to India's agricultural sector, as the country imports approximately 35% of its fertilizers from the Gulf region. The ongoing conflict has already led to a 50-80% increase in global fertilizer prices, while domestic fertilizer production is operating at only 60% capacity due to government restrictions on natural gas allocation. As India approaches its Kharif planting season in May, the potential for below-normal monsoon rainfall adds to the uncertainty, with a 60% likelihood of reduced rainfall in 2026. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for more than 60 days, the FAO warns of severe economic repercussions, including a projected 1.7% reduction in global economic growth and a significant rise in food commodity prices, leading to stagflation in India.