The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the 2026 southwest monsoon, which commenced on June 4, is expected to deliver rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), slightly down from the previous forecast of 92%. This indicates below-normal rainfall for the season, which lasts from June to September. However, the IMD clarifies that this does not mean every region will receive uniformly less rain; variations are expected due to India's diverse climatic conditions. For instance, while central and northwest India may experience below-normal rainfall, Northeast India is anticipated to receive normal levels. The IMD categorizes rainfall as normal, below-normal, or deficient, with a 60% chance of deficient conditions this season. Despite the forecast, a below-normal monsoon does not automatically equate to drought, as historical data shows that such seasons can still yield adequate rainfall in certain regions. The distribution of rainfall throughout the season, along with other factors like reservoir levels, plays a crucial role in determining the overall impact on agriculture and water availability.