India's Cash Withdrawals Rise 12% in Early April Amid Economic Shifts
India's cash withdrawals surge 12% in first half of April, RBI data shows
Business StandardImage: Business Standard
In the first half of April, India's currency in circulation increased by over ₹61,000 crore (approximately $6.40 billion), reaching a total of ₹42.3 trillion. This surge, marking an 11.8% year-on-year rise, is attributed to heightened rural demand and recent tax cuts, potentially impacting banking liquidity.
- 01Currency in circulation rose by over ₹61,000 crore in April, reaching ₹42.3 trillion.
- 02This marks an 11.8% increase year-on-year, the highest since early 2017.
- 03Strong rural demand and tax cuts on daily-use items are key drivers of this surge.
- 04Sustained high cash demand could challenge banking liquidity management.
- 05Economists predict liquidity surplus may drop to 0.5% of deposits in the second half of the fiscal year.
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In the first half of April, India's currency in circulation surged by over ₹61,000 crore (around $6.40 billion), pushing the total to a record ₹42.3 trillion. This represents an 11.8% year-on-year increase, the highest since the early months following the November 2016 demonetisation. Economists attribute this spike to a combination of strong rural demand, which has been bolstered by a cut in the goods and services tax on essential items, and lower interest rates that encourage spending. The rise in cash demand has been consistent over the past six months, following a period of subdued currency demand relative to GDP growth. However, this increase in currency could pose challenges for liquidity in the banking system, which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been managing to support economic activity. Analysts from HDFC Bank predict that liquidity surplus will average around 1% of deposits in the first half of the current financial year but may drop to 0.5% in the latter half if cash demand remains high due to inflation and rural spending. Maintaining liquidity within a range of 0.6% to 1.1% is crucial for keeping the spread between the weighted average call rate and the policy rate narrow.
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The increase in cash circulation could lead to higher inflation and affect the availability of loans, impacting everyday consumers, especially in rural areas.
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