RBI Deputy Governor Suggests Possible Changes to India's Inflation Target Framework
India may consider lower inflation target, narrower band: RBI Deputy Guv
Business StandardImage: Business Standard
Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta indicated that India might consider lowering its inflation target and tolerance band if GDP growth remains strong and inflation stabilizes over the next five years. The current framework targets inflation at 4% (+/-2%) until March 2031.
- 01Potential adjustment to India's inflation target and tolerance band based on economic conditions.
- 02Current framework mandates inflation at 4% (+/-2%) until March 2031.
- 03Future decisions will depend on inflation and growth outcomes over the next five years.
- 04External economic shocks will influence the inflation targeting framework.
- 05RBI projects headline inflation to average 4.6% in FY27.
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During a seminar hosted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), Poonam Gupta, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), discussed the possibility of adjusting India's inflation target and tolerance band if the economy exhibits robust growth and stable inflation over the next five years. Currently, the inflation target is set at 4% with a 2% tolerance band, valid through March 31, 2031. Gupta emphasized that any changes would depend on the economic landscape, particularly the interplay between inflation and growth. She noted that while the current framework has been effective, external shocks could necessitate maintaining the existing band size. The RBI anticipates that headline inflation will average 4.6% in fiscal year 2027, suggesting a cautious approach to any potential adjustments in the inflation targeting framework.
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Adjustments to the inflation target could influence economic policies affecting consumer prices and interest rates, potentially impacting home loans and other borrowing costs.
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