Morgan Stanley Predicts 24% Upside for Sensex, Targeting 95,000 by 2026
Sensex at 95,000 in 9 months? Morgan Stanley says bull market ahead, predicts 24% upside
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Morgan Stanley forecasts a potential 24% increase for India's Sensex index, projecting it could reach 95,000 by the end of 2026. This bullish outlook is driven by low valuations, a recovering earnings cycle, and strong domestic market resilience despite current geopolitical tensions.
- 01Morgan Stanley projects Sensex could hit 95,000 by 2026, reflecting a 24% upside from current levels.
- 02The index closed at 76,631 on April 9, marking its worst trailing performance in history.
- 03The base-case scenario assumes a trailing P/E multiple of 23.5x, above the historical average of 22x.
- 04In a bull case, the target could rise to 107,000, while a bear case could see it drop to 76,000 if oil prices exceed $100.
- 05Key assumptions include stable oil prices, robust domestic growth, and a favorable liquidity environment.
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Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates a promising future for the Indian stock market, projecting the Sensex index could reach 95,000 by 2026, representing a 24% increase from its current level of 76,631 as of April 9. The firm cites a combination of weak historical performance, attractive valuations, and a recovering earnings cycle as factors behind its bullish stance. The report highlights that the Sensex's trailing performance is the worst in history, and its valuations are at historic lows, particularly in gold terms. Morgan Stanley's base-case scenario anticipates a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 23.5x, slightly above the 25-year average of 22x. This reflects confidence in India's medium-term growth, macroeconomic stability, and a favorable policy environment. In a more optimistic bull case, the Sensex could soar to 107,000, contingent on oil prices remaining below $70 per barrel and an annual earnings growth of 19%. Conversely, a bear case scenario, where oil prices exceed $100, could see the index fall to 76,000. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making investment decisions.
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If Morgan Stanley's predictions hold true, investors could see significant returns on their investments, impacting the overall economic sentiment and potentially increasing retail participation in the stock market.
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