The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) party, led by Chief Minister MK Stalin, is projected to retain power in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections scheduled for April 23, 2026. According to a Lok Poll survey, the DMK alliance is expected to win between 181 and 189 seats in the 234-member Assembly, with a vote share of approximately 40.1%. The AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), under Edappadi K. Palaniswami, is forecasted to secure 38-42 seats with a 29% vote share. Meanwhile, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), contesting its first election led by actor Vijay, is anticipated to win 8-10 seats with a vote share of nearly 24%. The surveys indicate that Stalin is the most favored chief ministerial candidate, with 41% support, while Vijay and Palaniswami follow with 27.1% and 24.1% respectively. The DMK's advantage stems from its successful welfare schemes, particularly appealing to women in rural areas. The division of opposition votes between AIADMK and TVK further strengthens DMK's position, making it challenging for either to reach a majority.