BNP Paribas has revised its 2026 Nifty target down by 11% to 25,500, citing various macroeconomic challenges, including ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a surge in crude oil prices. The Nifty index recently closed at 23,843, indicating a modest potential upside of 7% from current levels. The brokerage's target is based on an 18.2x earnings multiple for 2027, slightly below the 10-year average of 18.6x. Factors such as weaker earnings prospects, subdued foreign investor flows, and rising macroeconomic risks associated with elevated energy prices have contributed to this outlook. The recent increase in Brent crude prices, averaging around $100 amid the Iran-US conflict, is expected to adversely affect India's current account and fiscal position. BNP Paribas estimates that every $10 increase in crude oil prices could expand India's current account deficit by approximately 35 basis points. Additionally, the firm has adopted a defensive stance, favoring sectors like consumer staples, telecom, and private sector banks, while expressing caution towards autos, cement, and infrastructure due to rising input costs and potential cuts in government spending.