The upcoming monetary policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is particularly complex due to multiple conflicting macroeconomic signals. Inflation risks are resurfacing, primarily driven by a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which have exceeded $100 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. This increase is exacerbated by the Indian rupee's depreciation, which has crossed 93 per dollar, contributing to imported inflation. According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India, this situation is compounded by the projected 'super El Nino' weather phenomenon, which is expected to further pressure inflation. The nature of this inflation is supply-side, making traditional monetary policy tools less effective. Additionally, the global monetary environment is uncertain, with the US Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts, which strengthens the dollar and tightens global liquidity, limiting the RBI's options. The RBI faces a crucial trade-off between fostering economic growth and stabilizing the currency, as cutting rates could spur growth but worsen inflation, while raising rates could stabilize the rupee but slow the economy. As such, the RBI's ability to provide clear forward guidance is hampered by high uncertainty regarding both inflation and growth projections.