RBI Governor Signals Potential for Continued Low Interest Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty
'Quite possible that rates will remain low in the near to medium term'
Business Standard
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Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that interest rates may remain low in the near to medium term, depending on evolving economic conditions. He highlighted the importance of monitoring inflation and supply chain disruptions, while also addressing concerns about banking sector stability and foreign exchange reserves.
- 01Interest rates may stay low in the near to medium term, influenced by economic conditions.
- 02Core inflation is projected at 4.4% for the full year, rising to 5% in the second half.
- 03The RBI has seen satisfactory transmission of previous rate cuts into lending and deposit rates.
- 04Malhotra emphasized the strength of India's macroeconomic fundamentals despite recent shocks.
- 05Concerns regarding banking sector health are minimal, though some sectors may face challenges.
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During a recent press conference, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra discussed the central bank's monetary policy stance, indicating that interest rates could remain low for the near to medium term. He noted that the full-year inflation average is projected at 4.4%, with expectations for the second half nearing 5%. Malhotra highlighted that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will assess various factors before making decisions, emphasizing that the policy path is not predetermined. He addressed the recent volatility in foreign exchange markets and stated that the measures taken to curb rupee fluctuations are not permanent. Despite a drop in foreign-exchange reserves by approximately $40 billion, Malhotra reassured that India has sufficient reserves for stability. He acknowledged the satisfactory transmission of previous rate cuts into lending and deposit rates, with about 90 basis points transmission on the lending side. While projecting a growth rate of 6.9%, he acknowledged potential risks from supply chain disruptions, particularly in energy. Malhotra concluded by stating that any loan waivers should be targeted and context-specific, especially in cases of natural calamities.
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The potential for low interest rates may benefit borrowers, keeping loan EMIs manageable. However, ongoing supply chain disruptions could affect economic growth and inflation, impacting consumers and businesses.
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