The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first prediction of below-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, marking a significant concern for the country's agricultural sector and economy. The forecast suggests that rainfall will likely be 92% of the long-period average (LPA), which is based on historical data from 1971-2020. This prediction is attributed to the El Niño phenomenon, which typically leads to weaker monsoon conditions. The IMD's statistical model indicates a 35% probability of deficient rainfall, which could adversely affect the livelihoods of the 47% of the population dependent on agriculture, as 51% of India's farmed area relies on rain. The last occurrence of below-normal rainfall was in 2023, also an El Niño year. Experts warn that the impact of El Niño may intensify during the second half of the monsoon season, particularly in July, August, and September. Farmers are encouraged to avoid water-intensive crops and stay updated with IMD forecasts as the season approaches.