California Governor's Race: Late Voting Trends May Shift Primary Outcomes
Why the California governor’s race could be dramatically upended at the last minute

Image: New York Post
In California's governor primary, early voting shows a Republican lead, but experts predict a late surge in Democratic votes could alter results. As of May 16, 37% of early ballots were from Republicans, while Democratic returns lagged at 41%. The counting process may delay final results, impacting voter perceptions.
- 0137% of early ballots returned were from Republican voters, indicating a strong early turnout.
- 02Democratic ballot returns are currently at 41%, down 13 points from the previous primary.
- 03Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio suggests that many Democrats are waiting until the last minute to submit their ballots.
- 04California allows mailed ballots to be counted if postmarked by Election Day and received up to seven days later, prolonging the counting period.
- 05Governor Gavin Newsom emphasized the importance of timely results to combat misinformation surrounding the election.
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In California's upcoming gubernatorial primary, early voting has shown a notable Republican advantage, with 37% of the 905,889 ballots returned by May 16 coming from Republican voters. However, experts caution that a late influx of Democratic votes could significantly alter the election outcome. Currently, only 41% of returned ballots are from Democrats, a decrease of 13 points from four years ago. As of Tuesday morning, the Democratic share of the total ballots returned has increased to 48%, while Republicans account for 32%. Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio noted that many Democratic voters are likely holding onto their ballots until the last minute to support the candidate with the most momentum. California's vote counting process is notoriously slow, allowing ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received within a week after. This delay means that final results may not be clear for days after the primary, potentially shifting the odds as more Democratic votes are counted. Governor Gavin Newsom has expressed concern about the impact of delayed results on public trust in the election process, urging for timely reporting to prevent the spread of misinformation.
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The outcomes of the primary could significantly influence the political landscape in California, affecting policy directions and governance.
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