The Peril of Transactional Deterrence in U.S.-China Relations
The peril of transactional deterrence: How the US unwittingly shifted Taiwan's timeline
Image: The Hill
Context
The U.S.-China relationship has long been characterized by strategic deterrence, particularly concerning Taiwan. Recent shifts in U.S. policy, including the emphasis on trade and economic negotiations, are changing the dynamics of this deterrence framework.
What The Author Says
This piece argues that the U.S. has inadvertently weakened its deterrence strategy regarding Taiwan by adopting a transactional foreign policy. This shift risks altering perceptions of American commitment among adversaries, particularly China, which could destabilize the region.
Key Arguments
Facts and Opinions in the article
📗 Facts
- The U.S. national debt is approaching $39 trillion.
- Japan's defense budget plan is set at a record-high 9 trillion yen (approximately $58 billion).
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is expanding operations in Phoenix, Arizona.
📕 Opinions
- This article suggests that the U.S. is treating strategic deterrence as negotiable, which could embolden China.
- The author interprets the shift in U.S. policy as a dangerous trend that could destabilize the region.
- The piece argues that Beijing is likely interpreting U.S. actions as a sign of declining commitment to Taiwan.
Counterpoints
The U.S. may still maintain strong military support for Taiwan.
Despite the shift in policy, the U.S. military presence and commitments in the region remain robust, potentially deterring Chinese aggression.
Economic diversification could enhance U.S. resilience.
Decentralizing semiconductor production may strengthen the U.S. economy and reduce dependency on Taiwan, allowing for a more stable long-term strategy.
Regional allies might welcome a more flexible U.S. approach.
Some allies may prefer a U.S. strategy that allows for negotiation and collaboration rather than a rigid stance that could escalate tensions.
Bias Assessment
The author appears to have a critical view of U.S. foreign policy, potentially overlooking positive aspects of economic diversification.
Why This Matters
The recent U.S. legislative efforts, such as the CHIPS and Science Act, are decentralizing semiconductor manufacturing, impacting Taiwan's strategic importance. This change comes at a time when tensions in the Taiwan Strait are high, making the analysis timely.
🤔 Think About
- •How might U.S. military commitments evolve in response to changing geopolitical dynamics?
- •What are the potential benefits of economic diversification for U.S. foreign policy?
- •Could a more flexible U.S. approach lead to better cooperation with regional allies?
- •What long-term strategies should the U.S. adopt to maintain deterrence in the Taiwan Strait?
Opens original article on The Hill
Advertisement
In-Article Ad
Reader Poll
Do you agree with the author's assessment of U.S. policy towards Taiwan?
Connecting to poll...
