The southwest monsoon has officially arrived in Kerala on June 1, 2026, marking a delay of nine days from the initial forecast of May 26, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This year's monsoon is expected to be particularly weak, with forecasts predicting rainfall at only 90% of the average, which is a decline from the earlier estimate of 92%. The IMD noted that this could be the weakest monsoon season in 11 years, primarily due to the effects of the El Nino climate pattern, which is anticipated to be moderate to strong during the latter half of the season. El Nino typically leads to warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, disrupting usual weather patterns and resulting in reduced rainfall in India. The monsoon plays a vital role in India's agriculture, supplying approximately 70% of the necessary rainfall for crops such as rice, corn, and sugarcane, as well as replenishing vital water sources like aquifers and reservoirs.