Early Monsoon Arrival Expected in Kerala Amid El Niño Concerns
Monsoon set to hit Kerala early on May 26, says IMD amid El Nino warning
Hindustan Times
Image: Hindustan Times
The southwest monsoon is forecasted to reach Kerala on May 26, six days earlier than the usual June 1 date, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, the potential emergence of El Niño may weaken the monsoon season, which is predicted to bring below-normal rainfall across much of India this year.
- 01The southwest monsoon's early arrival does not guarantee strong rainfall, as historical data shows weak rainfall in early years.
- 02El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% probability of it developing between May and July, potentially leading to a weaker monsoon.
- 03IMD's first forecast indicates expected rainfall at 92% of the long-period average for the June-September season.
- 04The long-period average rainfall for India is calculated at 87 cm based on data from 1971-2020.
- 05Current weather conditions include a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, which may influence rainfall patterns across India.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is set to arrive in Kerala on May 26, which is six days earlier than the normal onset date of June 1. While conditions are favorable for the monsoon's advance, experts warn that the potential emergence of El Niño could significantly impact the season's overall rainfall. Historical data indicates that early onset does not correlate with increased rainfall, as there have been instances of weak monsoon seasons following early arrivals. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated an 82% probability of El Niño developing between May and July, which is associated with harsher summers and a weaker monsoon in India. IMD's initial forecast predicts rainfall to be 92% of the long-period average, calculated at 87 cm for the June-September season, with below-normal rainfall expected across many regions. A well-marked low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal is currently affecting weather patterns, leading to heavy rainfall in parts of northeast India and other southern regions.
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The early arrival of the monsoon may affect agricultural planning and water resources in Kerala, but the potential for below-normal rainfall due to El Niño raises concerns for farmers and local communities.
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