NOAA Predicts Below Average Activity for 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2026 hurricane season will see below average tropical activity, NOAA says

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, attributing this to the expected emergence of El Niño. The season, running from June 1 to November 30, is projected to have 8 to 14 named storms, with a 55% chance of below-average activity.
- 01The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes predicted.
- 02El Niño is anticipated to emerge soon and persist throughout the hurricane season, influencing storm activity.
- 03NOAA's outlook indicates a 55% probability of below-average tropical activity this year.
- 04The average Atlantic hurricane season typically has 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
- 05The previous 2025 season recorded 13 named storms, just below the long-term average, with no landfalling hurricanes in the U.S.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to experience below-average tropical activity. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is forecasted to have between 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes anticipated. This prediction comes with a 55% chance of below-average activity, largely influenced by the expected emergence of El Niño, which is known to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic. In comparison, an average season typically sees 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The previous season in 2025 recorded 13 named storms, slightly below the long-term average, and notably, there were no landfalling hurricanes in the United States for the first time in a decade. However, the season was still significant, producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Hurricane Melissa, which caused extensive damage in Jamaica. NOAA emphasizes that while it can predict overall seasonal activity, it does not forecast specific landfall locations or the number of storms that will make landfall.
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The forecast of below-average hurricane activity may provide some relief to coastal communities that often prepare for severe weather impacts each year.
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