Bitcoin's Value Could Reach $224K Amid Rising Sovereign Debt Concerns, Says Bitwise
Bitcoin’s $224K ‘fair value’ may emerge if sovereign debt fears deepen: Bitwise

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Bitwise reports that Bitcoin could achieve a theoretical value of $224,000 if adopted as a hedge against sovereign default risk, driven by rising global sovereign debt levels, particularly in Japan. However, short-term pressures from higher yields may keep Bitcoin range-bound.
- 01Japan's public debt is close to 230% of GDP, with rising bond yields affecting investment choices.
- 02US 30-year Treasury yields recently reached 5.11%, the highest since 2007, indicating increased sovereign risk premiums.
- 03Bitwise's model suggests Bitcoin could be valued at $224,000 if it gains traction as a hedge against sovereign default risk.
- 04Historically, Bitcoin performs better when real interest rates decline, as seen during its 2021 bull market.
- 05Analyst Sminston predicts Bitcoin could trade between $90,000 and $255,000 by the end of 2026 based on historical price models.
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Bitwise has highlighted that Bitcoin's theoretical value could reach $224,000 if it becomes a preferred hedge against increasing sovereign default risks, particularly as global sovereign debt levels rise. Japan's public debt is nearing 230% of GDP, with its 10-year government bond yield climbing to 2.78%. The report notes that Japanese investors hold around $1.2 trillion in US Treasurys, but higher domestic yields may prompt a shift back to local bonds. In the US, 30-year Treasury yields have hit 5.11%, the highest since 2007, indicating rising sovereign risk premiums. Although these trends could negatively impact risk assets in the short term, Bitwise suggests that a deeper disruption in the bond market could lead to increased liquidity from central banks, potentially benefiting Bitcoin. The report also emphasizes that Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to real interest rates, which have historically favored the cryptocurrency when they decline. Additionally, Bitcoin researcher Sminston forecasts that Bitcoin could trade between $90,000 and $255,000 by the end of 2026, maintaining a bullish outlook.
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The rising sovereign debt levels and bond yields could lead to shifts in investment strategies, affecting both local and global markets.
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