The exit polls for the 2026 Assembly Elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, and Puducherry are expected to be announced today, with the actual vote counting scheduled for May 4. Experts emphasize that a seemingly small margin of error of 3-5% in these polls can lead to dramatic shifts in seat projections, potentially altering the expected outcomes significantly. For instance, if a party is projected to have a 45% vote share, it could realistically range from 40% to 50%, which can be pivotal in closely contested elections. Historical precedents, such as the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was projected to win between 350-400 seats but ended up with just over 300 seats, highlight the unreliability of exit polls. Similar miscalculations have occurred in previous elections, including the 2004 general elections and the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, where unexpected results contradicted poll predictions. Analysts caution that while exit polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, they should be treated as indicators rather than definitive verdicts.