The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a below-normal monsoon in 2026, estimating rainfall at 92% of the long period average (LPA), which raises concerns for agricultural output. Improved irrigation systems, resilient seed varieties, and government policies have contributed to greater agricultural resilience over the years. The IMD's forecast indicates that most regions, except for some areas in the Northeast and South, will experience below-normal rainfall, potentially affecting food production. However, data shows that during previous below-normal monsoon years, such as 2017, 2018, and 2023, India did not see significant declines in food grain production. This shift suggests that agricultural output is increasingly influenced by factors like irrigation coverage and market prices rather than solely by monsoon rainfall. Despite these advancements, risks remain, particularly in rain-fed states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, where localized impacts could occur. The government is actively assessing the situation and planning contingency measures to mitigate potential impacts from the anticipated El Niño conditions, which have historically led to droughts and reduced kharif output in India.