The El Niño weather phenomenon, originating in the central Pacific Ocean, poses significant risks to India's agricultural sector, particularly the kharif crops. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected below-normal rainfall this monsoon season, estimating it at 90% of the long period average (LPA). Historical analyses indicate that strong El Niño events have led to an average 1.3% decline in kharif crop output, with vulnerable crops including jowar and tur, which may see production drops of 28% and 17.1%, respectively. The World Meteorological Organization has indicated an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and November, coinciding with the crucial monsoon period. This could exacerbate inflation, as lower agricultural productivity directly impacts prices, especially for vegetables, pulses, and edible oils, which constitute about 9% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Experts warn that inflation could reach 5.1% for FY27, with risks skewed to the upside due to geopolitical tensions. El Niño's effects could also ripple through the rural economy, impacting livelihoods reliant on agriculture.