Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has entered a critical resistance zone around $78,000, as noted by analyst Benjamin Cowen. He emphasizes that the current price action does not definitively indicate a breakout or rejection, creating uncertainty in the market. Cowen observes that Bitcoin is interacting with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), briefly touching this level before slipping below it. This behavior mirrors past cycles in 2023 and 2024, where similar patterns led to either temporary rejections or eventual breakouts. Cowen highlights a recent structure where a February low was followed by a higher April low, which historically supports short-term strength. However, he warns that momentum may fade as the market approaches late April or May, depending on broader conditions. Cowen outlines two potential scenarios: if Bitcoin breaks above the resistance, it may still face limitations near the 200-day moving average, reducing the chances of a sustained bull market. Conversely, if rejected, Bitcoin could remain range-bound, potentially revisiting prior lows later in the year. Overall, Cowen maintains a cautious outlook, framing the current rally as a countertrend rather than the onset of a new bull phase, especially as traditional asset classes have outperformed Bitcoin this year.