Morgan Stanley has warned that the global oil market is facing a critical situation as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to ongoing tensions related to the Iran war. Analysts led by Martijn Rats noted that despite a disruption of nearly 1 billion barrels of oil supply, crude prices have not surged as expected, remaining below levels seen after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The brokerage attributes this to sufficient market buffers and increased crude exports from the United States, alongside reduced imports from China. However, they caution that if the closure persists beyond June, oil prices may need to rise significantly to restore balance. Currently, Morgan Stanley projects that Dated Brent crude will average $110 a barrel this quarter, with a bullish scenario predicting prices could reach between $130 and $150 if disruptions continue. As market attention shifts to U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming discussions in China regarding Iran, the potential for a resolution remains a focal point for stabilizing oil markets.