A recent UN report forecasts that global temperatures will likely reach near-record highs within the next five years, with Arctic regions warming significantly faster. The report predicts temporary exceedances of the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, highlighting the urgency of climate action.

• 01Global mean near-surface temperatures are expected to rise between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2026-2030.
• 02Arctic winter temperatures are projected to increase by about 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 baseline, significantly higher than the global average.
• 03The year 2024 is anticipated to be surpassed as the warmest year on record, with temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
• 04The report emphasizes that crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold temporarily does not indicate a failure of the Paris Agreement, which focuses on long-term averages.
• 05A strong El Niño is expected to influence global temperatures, potentially driving them to record levels through 2027.

The projected increase in global temperatures will likely lead to more frequent and severe weather events, particularly in the Arctic and northern regions.