India Faces Potential Monsoon Challenges Amid Emerging El Niño
A delayed monsoon, an emerging El Nino and the long shadow of India’s Great Famine
The Hindu
Image: The Hindu
As India anticipates a 10% deficit in monsoon rainfall, concerns grow over the emerging El Niño phenomenon, reminiscent of the devastating Great Famine of 1876-78 that claimed millions of lives. Current forecasts indicate a shift towards El Niño conditions, prompting fears of drought and food insecurity.
- 01The India Meteorological Department forecasts a 10% deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall this year.
- 02The emerging El Niño could be at least moderate, with some scientists dubbing it a 'Super El Niño'.
- 03Historical parallels are drawn to the Great Famine of 1876-78, which resulted in an estimated 55 to 82 lakh deaths due to failed monsoons.
- 04Telangana's traditional water systems, including 18,089 large tanks, helped mitigate the impact of drought during past famines.
- 05Experts warn of potential extreme weather patterns, including sudden heavy rainfall and prolonged droughts, due to climate variability.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a 10% deficit in the southwest monsoon rainfall for the current year, raising concerns as the region prepares for the monsoon to reach Telangana by June 10. This situation coincides with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific, reminiscent of the catastrophic Great Famine of 1876-78, which claimed millions of lives due to failed crops and drought. Historical data indicate that rainfall in the region dropped significantly during that period, leading to widespread famine and suffering. Current climatological models suggest that this year's El Niño could be moderate to strong, prompting fears of similar outcomes. However, Telangana's extensive traditional water management systems, which include thousands of tanks and wells, may serve as buffers against the anticipated rainfall deficits. Experts emphasize the need for preparedness as climate variability could lead to extreme weather patterns, impacting agriculture and food security across the region.
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The expected monsoon deficit could lead to drought conditions, affecting agriculture and water availability in Telangana.
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