Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Amid Severe Inventory Draws
Goldman Hikes Oil Price Forecasts on ‘Extreme’ Inventory Draws
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Goldman Sachs has increased its oil price forecasts due to significant inventory draws caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q4 2023, up from $80, as global oil inventories face a record draw of 11 to 12 million barrels per day.
- 01Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude will average $90 per barrel in Q4 2023.
- 02The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to 14.5 million barrels per day in crude production losses.
- 03Global oil inventories are drawing at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day.
- 04Brent crude prices have increased by nearly 50% since the conflict began in late February.
- 05A deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day is expected this quarter compared to a surplus last year.
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has raised its oil price forecasts, predicting Brent crude will average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023, up from a previous estimate of $80. This adjustment is attributed to severe inventory draws resulting from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused 14.5 million barrels per day in Persian Gulf crude production losses. Analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby noted that global oil inventories are experiencing a record draw of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April. The ongoing conflict in the region has severely disrupted oil supply, leading to a 50% increase in Brent prices since late February. The bank anticipates a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day this quarter, contrasting with last year's surplus. Futures for Brent crude are currently trading just below $108 per barrel, marking a potential sixth consecutive daily gain.
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The rise in oil prices could lead to increased fuel costs for consumers and businesses, potentially raising inflation rates globally.
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