India's inflation outlook faces uncertainty as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a below-normal monsoon for 2026, predicting rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average. This is concerning as a weak monsoon could lead to higher food prices, particularly in vegetables and pulses, which are sensitive to weather conditions. Currently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation has risen to 3.4% in March 2026, up from 3.21% in February, marking a third consecutive monthly increase. Economists are particularly cautious due to potential El Niño conditions, which could disrupt normal rainfall patterns and lead to increased agricultural risks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a headline CPI inflation rate of 4.6% for FY27, with expectations of rising inflation in the latter part of the year due to seasonal demand and the monsoon's impact on food prices. Despite these inflationary pressures, India's GDP growth remains robust, projected between 6.8% and 7.1%.