Fitch Ratings Forecasts Brent Crude Oil Price Trends Amid Hormuz Crisis
Brent to average $87/bbl in 2026, says Fitch amid Hormuz crisis

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Fitch Ratings predicts Brent crude oil will average $87 per barrel in 2026, with prices expected to peak at $100-110 during May-July due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, before declining to $70. The reopening of the strait is crucial for future price stability.
- 01Fitch anticipates Brent prices will average $87 per barrel in 2026.
- 02Prices are projected to spike to $100-110 per barrel during May-July due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
- 03The closure has disrupted the transit of approximately 20 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- 04Fitch expects the market to return to oversupply conditions from September 2026.
- 05The timing of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a key uncertainty affecting oil prices.
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Fitch Ratings has projected that Brent crude oil prices will average $87 per barrel in 2026, with short-term spikes expected due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The agency anticipates prices will reach $100-110 per barrel from May to July before declining to $80 in August and around $70 from September onwards. This forecast hinges on the assumption that the strait will reopen by the end of July, following a five-month closure that has disrupted the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing about one-fifth of global oil consumption. Fitch emphasizes that the current price surge is a temporary logistical supply shock rather than a permanent loss of production capacity. The report also indicates that the market is likely to return to oversupply conditions by September 2026, driven by a recovery in Middle Eastern production and strong non-OPEC supply growth. However, uncertainty regarding the timing of the strait's reopening continues to create volatility in oil prices.
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The projected fluctuations in oil prices will affect global oil markets, influencing fuel prices and economic conditions.
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