The ongoing conflict in Iran is inflicting substantial pain on the global economy, particularly impacting oil markets. Since hostilities began, crude oil prices have surged by 45.8%, driven by tight supply and depleted inventories. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has seen a 12.1% reduction in levels, limiting the country's ability to manage further disruptions in oil supply. Analysts project that OECD oil inventories will remain below the ideal supply range of 55–60 days until at least 2027, which curtails the likelihood of a significant price drop. Although there are potential ceasefire talks on the horizon, the outlook for oil prices remains cautiously bullish due to persistent supply deficits and slow recovery of inventories. The combination of these factors suggests that unless peace is achieved swiftly, oil prices may continue to rise, further straining the global economy.