West Asia Conflict's Economic Ripple Effects on India: EAC-PM Chief Insights
West Asia war may hit India even if conflict ends soon: EAC-PM chief

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S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, warned that the ongoing West Asia conflict will impact India's economy, supply chains, and oil prices even if it ends soon. He emphasized the need for a structured risk management framework to mitigate these effects and highlighted India's resilience amid global shocks.
- 01Oil prices are unlikely to return to $69 per barrel soon, affecting India's economy.
- 02India's growth could remain between 6.5% to 7% if crude oil stays below $95 per barrel.
- 03Dev called for strategic reserves in energy, food, and fertilizers to manage economic shocks.
- 04India has achieved two-thirds of its renewable energy commitments ahead of schedule.
- 05The government is negotiating a bilateral trade framework with the US to support Indian exporters.
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S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, expressed concerns over the economic repercussions of the ongoing West Asia conflict. He stated that even if the war ceases, the effects on oil production and supply chains will linger, making it unlikely for oil prices to revert to $69 per barrel in the near future. Dev noted that while India's macroeconomic position is currently robust, fluctuations in crude oil prices could significantly impact growth and inflation rates in the fiscal year 2027. He projected that growth could stabilize between 6.5% to 7% if oil prices remain under $95 per barrel, but warned that prices around $120 per barrel would necessitate a reevaluation of economic forecasts. Dev emphasized the necessity for India to develop a structured risk management framework to address the increasing frequency of global economic shocks, advocating for strategic reserves and diversification in critical sectors. He highlighted India's progress in renewable energy, achieving two-thirds of its commitments ahead of schedule, and expressed optimism about ongoing trade negotiations with the US, which could benefit Indian exporters, particularly micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
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The ongoing conflict in West Asia could lead to increased oil prices, affecting transportation and commodity costs in India, which may result in higher inflation and slower economic growth.
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