India's Balance of Payments Faces Strain Amid Currency Depreciation and Outflows
ET Graphics: BoP stability tested by outflows & Rupee fall
Image: The Economic Times
India's external accounts are under pressure, with the current account deficit widening and capital account outflows increasing. The Indian rupee has depreciated by approximately 11% over the past year, prompting potential interventions from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to stabilize the currency and attract foreign investments.
- 01The Indian rupee has fallen nearly 5% since the onset of the US-Iran conflict.
- 02Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, suggests the RBI may reopen a currency swap window for oil marketing companies (OMCs).
- 03Policy actions may include removing withholding tax for foreign investors in sovereign bonds and incentivizing foreign currency non-resident deposits.
- 04Aastha Gudwani, Chief Economist at Barclays, emphasizes the need for favorable conditions for state-owned banks to issue foreign currency bonds.
- 05The expected widening of the current account deficit is compounded by a shrinking capital account surplus.
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India's external account is facing significant challenges as both the current and capital accounts come under pressure. The current account deficit is anticipated to widen, while the capital account may experience substantial outflows. Over the past year, the Indian rupee has depreciated by approximately 11%, with a nearly 5% drop since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. In response to this economic strain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may consider a range of measures to stabilize the currency, including reopening a currency swap window for oil marketing companies (OMCs) and offering incentives for Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) deposits. Radhika Rao, Executive Director at DBS Bank, highlighted that policy actions beyond conventional interest rate hikes will be crucial, such as removing withholding tax for foreign investors in sovereign bonds and encouraging state-owned banks to issue foreign currency bonds. The pressure on the balance of payments (BoP) is not only due to the widening current account deficit but also the declining capital account surplus, indicating a need for proactive policy measures to attract foreign investment and stabilize the rupee.
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The depreciation of the rupee and widening current account deficit could lead to increased import costs and affect the purchasing power of consumers in India.
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