As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approaches its monetary policy meeting on June 5, all twelve surveyed economists expect the central bank to maintain its current policy rate of 5.25%. Despite a rise in inflation to 3.48% in April, the highest since May 2023, a majority believe the RBI will adopt a cautious approach. Three economists foresee potential rate hikes later in the fiscal year, citing concerns over inflation driven by factors like the West Asia crisis and risks associated with El Niño affecting food supplies. Economists from ANZ Bank predict two rate increases in the latter half of 2026, while HSBC anticipates terminal inflation at 5.6% in FY27. However, others argue that inflation may remain within the RBI's comfort zone, suggesting the central bank may not act unless inflation exceeds 6% for an extended period. The bond market is reflecting these expectations, with the one-year overnight indexed swap (OIS) trading at 6.04%, indicating a potential policy rate of 5.80% over the next year.