As the war in Ukraine continues, reports indicate that the Kremlin is increasingly concerned about a possible coup or assassination attempt against President Vladimir Putin. These claims, originating from an independent Russian media outlet and later reported by international news organizations, suggest that security around Putin has been significantly heightened due to fears of internal threats, particularly from elite circles within Russia. Political analysts highlight that the internal system in Russia is under strain, with various factions competing for influence amid economic pressures and wartime challenges.

Despite these fears, many experts express skepticism regarding the likelihood of a coup. The power structure in Russia is characterized by competing patronage networks that depend on the Kremlin for resources and influence, making a coordinated rebellion unlikely. Analysts point to Sergei Shoigu, the former defense minister, as a potentially destabilizing figure due to his past influence within the military, though his credibility has reportedly diminished.

The Wagner mutiny in June 2023 briefly exposed vulnerabilities within the state but did not constitute a genuine coup attempt. Some analysts suggest that narratives of a coup may be part of a psychological operation aimed at creating mistrust among the elite rather than an actual assessment of the situation. Overall, while Putin's security concerns have intensified, the consensus is that a credible coup threat remains unlikely.