The Indian rupee has recently faced significant pressure, hitting a record low of 95.97 per dollar on May 15, 2026, due to surging crude oil prices and a strengthening US dollar. Experts from Barclays and IFA Global express skepticism about the rupee breaching the psychologically important 100-per-dollar threshold in the near future. Mitul Kotecha, head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Asia at Barclays, noted that while their forecasts did not anticipate such rapid depreciation, market conditions have shifted dramatically. The rupee has depreciated 6.35% in 2026 and 1.21% since April, with a widening trade deficit of $28.38 billion in April exacerbating concerns. Analysts suggest that if crude oil prices remain above $90 per barrel, the rupee could weaken further, potentially reaching 97-97.50 per dollar by June. The Reserve Bank of India is reportedly intervening to stabilize the rupee, but its effectiveness may be limited without robust foreign currency inflows. Should the rupee approach the 100-per-dollar mark, experts warn that policy measures akin to those implemented during the 2013 currency crisis may be necessary.