Experts Predict Rupee Will Not Hit 100 per Dollar Soon Amid Economic Pressures
Rupee hitting 100 per dollar in the next six months? Not soon, say experts

Image: Business Standard
Despite the Indian rupee's recent decline, experts believe it is unlikely to reach the critical 100-per-dollar mark in the next six months. Factors such as high oil prices, foreign fund outflows, and a widening trade deficit are contributing to the rupee's depreciation, but intervention from the Reserve Bank of India may help stabilize it.
- 01The rupee recently hit a record low of 95.97 per dollar, influenced by rising crude oil prices and a strong dollar.
- 02Market sentiment is bearish due to sustained dollar demand from oil importers and significant foreign fund outflows.
- 03If crude oil prices remain high, reaching $100 per dollar could occur within six months to a year, according to experts.
- 04The Reserve Bank of India is intervening to curb volatility, but its ability to defend the rupee may be limited without foreign inflows.
- 05Policy responses similar to those during the 2013 currency crisis may be necessary if the rupee continues to depreciate sharply.
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The Indian rupee has recently faced significant pressure, hitting a record low of 95.97 per dollar on May 15, 2026, due to surging crude oil prices and a strengthening US dollar. Experts from Barclays and IFA Global express skepticism about the rupee breaching the psychologically important 100-per-dollar threshold in the near future. Mitul Kotecha, head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Asia at Barclays, noted that while their forecasts did not anticipate such rapid depreciation, market conditions have shifted dramatically. The rupee has depreciated 6.35% in 2026 and 1.21% since April, with a widening trade deficit of $28.38 billion in April exacerbating concerns. Analysts suggest that if crude oil prices remain above $90 per barrel, the rupee could weaken further, potentially reaching 97-97.50 per dollar by June. The Reserve Bank of India is reportedly intervening to stabilize the rupee, but its effectiveness may be limited without robust foreign currency inflows. Should the rupee approach the 100-per-dollar mark, experts warn that policy measures akin to those implemented during the 2013 currency crisis may be necessary.
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The depreciation of the rupee could lead to increased costs for imports, affecting prices for consumers and businesses reliant on foreign goods.
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