Crude oil prices are not expected to fall to $70 per barrel this year, with projections indicating they will remain between $80-85 per barrel by 2026, according to a report by Union Bank of India. While a moderation in prices is anticipated, significant declines are unlikely due to ongoing global uncertainties. The report warns that if oil prices stabilize at around $90 per barrel, it could adversely affect key macroeconomic indicators in India for the fiscal year 2027. GDP growth may slow to approximately 6.5%, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation could stay above 4.5%, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Furthermore, the report highlights the implications of a weak Indian rupee, which is contributing to higher interest rates and a rapid shift in rate transmission from cuts to hikes. Public sector banks have already begun increasing lending and deposit rates, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming months.