Crude oil prices experienced a significant decline of nearly 15% after U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supply. As Brent crude dropped to $94.43 per barrel and WTI to $96.82, downstream companies like Reliance Industries, HPCL, IOCL, and BPCL stand to benefit from lower input costs. However, this ceasefire could negatively impact upstream companies such as ONGC and Oil India, as lower prices may reduce their revenue per barrel. Analysts from Macquarie anticipate that oil prices may find support in the $85–$90 range, but ongoing geopolitical tensions could lead to volatility. The recent downgrade of target prices for HPCL, BPCL, and IOCL by UBS highlights the uncertainty surrounding earnings for Indian oil marketing companies, drawing parallels to disruptions seen in 2022. Increased geopolitical risks may also lead to market pricing in heightened risks around the Strait of Hormuz in the future.