Impact of Prolonged Conflict in West Asia on Indian Markets and Oil Prices
Domestic flows could be at risk from protracted war in West Asia: Sachin Bajaj of Axis Max Life
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Sachin Bajaj, executive vice-president at Axis Max Life Insurance, warns that sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia could negatively affect corporate earnings and domestic investment flows in India. However, a quick resolution could lead to a V-shaped market recovery.
- 01Sustained oil prices above $100 could harm corporate earnings and domestic flows.
- 02The Nifty50 index has dropped over 10% in the past month due to the conflict.
- 03A quick resolution may lead to a sharp market rebound.
- 04Defensive sectors like pharma and IT are expected to outperform.
- 05Foreign portfolio investors have sold nearly $13 billion in equities recently.
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Sachin Bajaj, the executive vice-president and chief investment officer at Axis Max Life Insurance, highlighted the potential risks to Indian markets from the ongoing conflict in West Asia. He noted that sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel could negatively impact corporate earnings and domestic investment flows, which have been absorbing foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. Since the war began on February 28, the Nifty50 index has fallen by over 10%, reflecting broader market corrections. If the conflict is resolved quickly without further damage to energy infrastructure, Bajaj anticipates a V-shaped recovery in markets. Conversely, if the war continues, the pressure on oil prices and corporate margins could lead to sustained FPI outflows and increased market volatility. Bajaj suggests focusing on defensive sectors like pharma, healthcare, and IT, while avoiding sectors negatively impacted by rising crude prices, such as airlines and travel. With FPIs recently selling nearly $13 billion in equities, the outlook for their return hinges on a significant de-escalation of the conflict.
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High oil prices could lead to increased costs for consumers and businesses, affecting economic growth and corporate earnings in India.
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