Gold Struggles as Safe Haven Amid West Asia Conflict
Why gold has not played its safe-haven role amid West Asia war
MintImage: Mint
Gold's traditional role as a safe haven is challenged amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, with the Nippon India ETF Gold BeES dropping nearly 16% since February 2026. Rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations have pressured gold, although experts remain optimistic about its long-term prospects.
- 01Nippon India ETF Gold BeES fell nearly 16% since the conflict began.
- 02Rising oil prices have triggered inflation fears and altered interest rate expectations.
- 03Central bank demand for gold has moderated due to rising crude prices.
- 04Gold's correlation with equities remains low, but inflation and interest rates are currently suppressing its value.
- 05Experts predict a consolidation phase for gold in the short term, with potential recovery later in 2026.
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As of March 2026, gold has struggled to fulfill its safe-haven role amid the West Asia conflict, with the Nippon India ETF Gold BeES dropping from ₹131.60 to ₹110.72, a nearly 16% decline. This downturn is largely attributed to rising Brent crude prices, which have fueled inflation fears and changed expectations regarding interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. Analysts, including Vishal Dhawan and Tapan Patel, note that higher US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading investors to favor dollar-denominated assets. Additionally, central bank demand for gold has lessened as countries like Russia and Turkey adjust their buying strategies to support their currencies. Despite these challenges, experts remain optimistic about gold's long-term potential, suggesting that a 10-15% allocation to gold in investment portfolios is advisable. They anticipate that if central bank buying continues and US Fed rate cuts occur, gold could emerge from its current consolidation phase later in 2026.
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The fluctuations in gold prices may affect investors' portfolios, particularly those heavily invested in gold. If gold prices continue to decline, investors may need to reassess their allocations.
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