RBI Maintains FY26 GDP Growth Forecast at 7.6%, Projects FY27 Growth at 6.9%

Original: RBI retains FY26 GDP at 7.6%; sets FY27 growth at 6.9%, inflation at 4.6% as war risks mount

The Economic Times•Apr 8, 20261 min

In a Nutshell

The Reserve Bank of India has retained its GDP growth forecast for FY26 at 7.6% while projecting a slower growth of 6.9% for FY27. The bank also anticipates inflation to average 4.6% in FY27, influenced by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.

Key Points

01RBI maintains FY26 GDP growth forecast at 7.6%.
02FY27 GDP growth projected at 6.9%.
03CPI inflation for FY27 estimated at 4.6%.
04Quarterly growth estimates for FY27 show a gradual increase.
05Geopolitical tensions and oil prices pose risks to economic outlook.

In-Article Ad

Full Summary

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) unchanged at 7.6%. However, it has projected a slower growth rate of 6.9% for the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27). The RBI anticipates quarterly growth rates of 6.8% in Q1, 6.7% in Q2, 7.0% in Q3, and 7.2% in Q4 of FY27. The central bank has also estimated the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for FY27 at 4.6%, with quarterly projections of 4.0% in Q1, 4.4% in Q2, 5.2% in Q3, and easing to 4.7% in Q4. Core inflation is expected to be around 4.4%. The RBI has expressed concerns that geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the ongoing conflict in Iran and rising oil prices, could negatively impact the economic outlook.

Key Figures

7.6%

GDP growth forecast for FY26

6.9%

Projected GDP growth for FY27

4.6%

Projected CPI inflation for FY27

4.0%

CPI inflation in Q1 of FY27

In-Article Ad

Why It Matters

The projected slower economic growth and inflation rates could influence consumer spending and investment decisions, potentially affecting job creation and economic stability.

Who is affected

Consumers, businesses, and investors in India.

What to know

Businesses should prepare for potential changes in consumer demand and adjust their strategies accordingly.

FAQ

The GDP growth forecast for FY26 is maintained at 7.6%.

The inflation rate projected for FY27 is 4.6%.

✦