Steel Price Recovery Expected to Boost Metal Companies in Q4FY26

Original: Q4 metal preview: Steel rebound to drive growth; non-ferrous mixed bag

Business Standard•Apr 8, 20265 min

In a Nutshell

A rebound in steel prices and seasonal demand is projected to enhance revenues and profitability for metal companies in Q4FY26. While ferrous sector firms like Tata Steel and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) anticipate growth, non-ferrous players face mixed outcomes despite rising aluminium prices due to company-specific challenges.

Key Points

01Steel prices have rebounded sharply, with domestic hot rolled coil prices increasing by 11-12% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.
02India's apparent steel consumption grew by 7% year-on-year, reaching 148 million tonnes in 11MFY26.
03Tata Steel and SAIL are expected to report significant EBITDA growth driven by higher sales realisations and volumes.
04Non-ferrous companies like Hindalco face challenges despite a 22% rise in aluminium prices due to specific operational issues.
05Jindal Steel and Power is projected to achieve the highest volume growth in the ferrous sector.

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Full Summary

In Q4FY26, metal companies are set to benefit from a significant recovery in steel prices, which have risen from a multi-year low of ₹46,500 per tonne in December 2025 to approximately ₹57,500 per tonne. This rebound is attributed to seasonal demand, particularly in post-monsoon construction, and the implementation of safeguard duties. Analysts predict that companies like Tata Steel and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) will see a notable increase in EBITDA, with expectations of around 26.5% growth year-on-year. India's apparent steel consumption also reflects a healthy 7% increase year-on-year, aided by a 37% rise in exports. However, non-ferrous players are experiencing a mixed performance; while aluminium prices have surged 22% year-on-year, companies such as Hindalco are facing operational challenges that may hinder their earnings growth. Overall, the ferrous sector is expected to thrive, while non-ferrous companies must navigate specific headwinds.

Key Figures

₹57,500

Current price of hot rolled coil per tonne

26.5%

Projected year-on-year EBITDA growth for the ferrous sector

7%

Year-on-year growth in India's apparent steel consumption

22%

Year-on-year increase in aluminium prices

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Why It Matters

The recovery in steel prices is likely to improve the financial performance of steel companies, potentially leading to increased investments and job stability in the sector.

Who is affected

Steel manufacturers, construction companies, and workers in the metal industry.

What to know

Investors and stakeholders in the metal sector should monitor the quarterly earnings reports to gauge the financial health of these companies.

FAQ

Seasonal demand, particularly from post-monsoon construction, and safeguard duties have contributed to the recovery in steel prices.

Non-ferrous companies are facing mixed results; while aluminium prices have risen, specific operational challenges are impacting earnings.

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