As Kerala approaches its assembly elections on April 9, 2026, the ongoing conflict in West Asia is casting a long shadow over voter turnout, particularly among non-resident Indians (NRIs). Historically, over 50,000 expatriates would travel home to vote, but this number is expected to plummet to fewer than 5,000 due to soaring airfares, flight cancellations, and restricted leave policies in Gulf countries. This decline is particularly concerning in constituencies like Vadakara and Ponnani, where victories are often decided by fewer than 1,000 votes. The absence of these voters could shift the balance towards the Left Democratic Front (LDF) or National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in traditionally United Democratic Front (UDF) strongholds. In response, political parties are pivoting to digital engagement strategies, utilizing WhatsApp groups to reach out to NRI voters and influence their families back home. Additionally, the economic repercussions of the conflict are expected to result in a 20% drop in remittances, prompting a focus on economic issues rather than traditional identity politics. The LDF is promoting its welfare measures as a safety net for returning migrants, while the UDF criticizes the government's failure to create local jobs, emphasizing Kerala's over-reliance on the volatile Gulf economy.