Oil prices have surged significantly today, with Brent crude rising to $98.68 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $99.35, reflecting a 4-5% increase in a single session. This uptick is primarily driven by renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for nearly 20% of the world's oil supply. Despite announcements of a two-week ceasefire, market confidence remains fragile due to ongoing strikes and political friction in the region, which have quickly erased earlier optimism. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments is evident as traders reintroduce a risk premium into oil prices, reacting to the uncertainty surrounding supply flows and diplomatic negotiations, especially between the U.S. and Iran. While Goldman Sachs has revised its long-term forecasts downward, predicting Brent at $90 and WTI at $87 by the second quarter of 2026, the immediate outlook remains volatile. Energy security concerns are at the forefront, with restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz raising alarms globally. Until there are clear signs of stability, oil prices are expected to remain elevated and reactive to geopolitical developments.